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Juventus – Parma : 1 Odd:1.25 FT:??
Betis – Ath Bilbao : 1X(DC) Odd:1.40 FT:??
Tirol – Salzburg : 2 Odd:1.22 FT:??
Slavia Prague – Zlin : 1 Odd:1.25 FT:??
Paris SG – Angers : 1 Odd:1.25 FT:??
Over/Under bets are some of the most popular betting selections – here you bet on whether more or fewer goals than a certain figure are scored during a match. You might also bet on other factors, like the number of yellow cards, corners and many more; however, the most common type is betting on goals scored. Due to this, we will stick to this type of the Over/Under bet for our overview.
Bookmakers will very often offer the classic Over 2.5-goals or Under 2.5-goals selections. Which strategy will make you successful in the long run? What should you take into account? Read on to find answers to these questions below.
1) Take Home and Away Performances into Account
The Home or Away record of a team has a considerable indicating value of whether 2.5 goals (so at least 3) or under 2.5 goals (so no more than 2) will be scored. Many teams play better in front of their own crowd and gain more points than in Away matches. The numbers prove this: Home teams score 1.66 goals on average, while Away teams only reach 1.20 goals on average.
The following example from the 2014-2015 season shows that these factors have a larger predictive value than the number of goals scored on average in the whole season (so Home and Away matches combined):
Hoffenheim often played with different tactical line-ups during Home and Away games. In each match that took place in their own stadium, they scored more than 2.5 goals every second match during the first 12 matchdays. In Away games, however, only in every third match were over 2.5 goals scored. Examining Bayern Munich’s statistics within the same period emphasizes the difference even further: at home they scored more than 2.5 goals in 86% of their matches, but this decreased to 20% during their Away games.