Sure HT/FT Matches

Free tip for:

**16.02.2021**

**Barcelona – Paris SG : 1X(DC) Odd: 1.50 FT: 1:4**

**Al Ahly (Egy) – Al-Merreikh (Sud) : 1 Odd: 1.30 FT: 3:0**

### Value Betting Football Strategy

The holy grail of football betting strategies.

A value bet is when the probability of a bet winning is greater than the probability reflected in the odds that a bookie provides.

To illustrate this, we’ll use the same example given above.

FC Barcelona is playing away at PSG and the bookies have Barcelona win at 2.5.

This means that the bookies believe that Barcelona has a 40% (100/2.5) chance of winning the match.

However, through various calculations, you have determined that the true probability of a Barcelona win is 50%.

Therefore, the actual odds for a Barcelona win should be 2 (100/50) and not 2.5.

**The bookie has made a mistake and you have identified a value bet.**

If you are constantly able to find events where the probability of the event occurring is higher than that implied by the bookmaker’s odds, then you will win in the long run.

Value betting is one of the best betting strategies out there.

However, in order to fully understand Value betting, we also need to understand how we’ll profit from value betting in the long term.

The Expected Value of a bet is an amount of money a bettor expects to win or lose if they were to place a bet on the same odds repeatedly.

The formula for calculating a bet EV is:

The Expected Value of a bet is an amount of money a bettor expects to win or lose if they were to place a bet on the same odds repeatedly.